![]() ![]() ![]() The paths of major hurricanes Donna, Miami-1926, and Lake Okeechobee (1928, which made landfall near Palm Beach), among others, followed a more common and potentially destructive (to today’s South Florida) track from the south-southeast or southeast. PATH/INTENSITY COMBINATION: When one examines historical tracks of South Florida or even specifically Dade County and middle-upper Keys hurricanes, readily one sees that category-5 Andrew was the anomaly, with its perpendicular, fast-moving westward path.This dire scenario is realistically plausible for four principal reasons: Yes, Irma could be (it’s too soon to use “will be” as some media headlines already tout) much more dangerous and destructive to more of South Florida and Keys than Andrew. For those of us who were inside Andrew (see my lengthy retrospective here for more), it’s hard to imagine how it could be worse, but it can. If this forecast track verifies (and there still is uncertainty involved, as per the width of the cone!), then South Florida would see the most destruction at least since Hurricane Andrew, and probably much more. This map, edited for space considerations, is for the historical record, frozen in time, at the time I write (see the National Hurricane Center for the most current information!!!): As I type this Thursday night (7 September), Hurricane Irma is motoring along between Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos Islands, on an increasingly probable Sunday rendezvous with at least South Florida and the Upper Keys. ![]()
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